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傅莹:中美关系能否从危险的边缘回归?(3)

时间:2020-08-19 01:34来源:8N.org.Cn 作者:天剑狂刀私服 点击:

  But make no mistake: The Chinese people will stand firm against U.S。 bullying over trade。 There is talk about China’s economy “sliding down” as a result of the trade war。 Some expect China to succumb soon。 I can tell you that this is wishful thinking。

  Yes, China is in the process of deleveraging, which is uncomfortable and painful。 But it is a price worth paying for sustaining healthy development。 It’s worth remembering that China adopted a stimulus program to help overcome the global recession triggered by the 2008 financial tsunami in the U.S。 And it’s worth noting that the trade war may slow the necessary process of deleveraging。

  Finger-pointing and hurting each other won’t solve any problems。 They will only make things worse。 This is why China will continue to work with all countries, including the U.S。, in areas of mutual concern — from climate change to transnational crime to epidemics to nuclear nonproliferation。

  This is also why China should continue talking to the U.S。 Many in China believe that the root causes of U.S。 troubles lie within — and therefore need to be solved by Americans themselves。 We can see that the U.S。 system requires a major overhaul to overcome deep sociopolitical divisions and economic disparities。 But that doesn’t relieve China of the responsibility to engage in dialogue, to find out where the two sides can and can’t agree, and to seek solutions or at least ways to manage persistent disputes。

  Such an approach won’t appeal to those who seek confrontation now。 But, to borrow a saying, if some folks want to chase butterflies, why should the rest of us go dancing along with them?

  China-U.S。 relations have deteriorated faster than almost anyone could have expected。 The question looms: Are the two countries leaping with their eyes closed into a so-called Thucydides Trap, with war possible between the rising and the established power? The U.S。 is driving this process and should reflect carefully whether it’s in Americans’ best interests to continue down this path。 China also needs to consider how to address the challenges wisely and whether the slide in the wrong direction can be halted。

  Tensions caused by trade have started to spread to other areas。 The U.S。 is now claiming that China has become its main strategic competitor, even accusing it of interfering in elections and seeking to challenge American global hegemony。 At the international level, globalism and multilateralism are under attack, and the resurgence of geopolitical and power competition, mixed with populism and protectionism, are weakening the bonds built among countries in recent decades。 These uncertainties seem poised to drag the world back to the turbulent years of the early 20th century。

  The causes for these tensions are many and various。 Competition among the new drivers of growth, industry and technology is a source of unease。 So, too, are the seismic political realignments in liberal democracies。 It also seems that the U.S。 and other Western countries, driven by their suspicion of different political systems, have become more wary or even fearful of China’s success under the leadership of the Communist Party。

  The U.S。 needs to realize that many of its complaints rest on shaky foundations。 For instance, the U.S。 seems to believe that it’s a victim of globalization — even though the numbers tell a different story。 According to World Bank statistics based on current dollar estimates, U.S。 gross domestic product grew from $5.98 trillion in 1990 to $19.39 trillion in 2017, an increase of $35,577 per capita。 China’s GDP per capita over the same period grew $8,509, or less than a quarter of the U.S。 total。

  The reality is that the U.S。 has been the main long-term beneficiary of globalization。 U.S。 multinationals have earned huge profits。 And there’s no doubt that Americans‘ prosperity and high living standards have been helped by low-cost overseas manufacturing, low-priced imports and the global circulation of dollars。

  Despite this, some in the U.S。 seem to be hoping to “decouple” the world’s two biggest economies, to reduce their interdependence and hamper or at least delay China’s progress。 The demands they’ve laid out are so extreme they seem designed to leave China no option but to choose confrontation and enter a high-cost power game。

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