Looking at the longer-term picture, Rystad Energy has updated our estimates for total undiscovered oil from 1 trillion barrels in 2018 to 350 billion barrels in our latest report, due to a rapid collapse in investor appetite for exploration exposure, leading to fewer government leases. This downward revision is good news for carbon compliance but could have negative consequences for global energy security, particularly if electric vehicle adoption falls short of expectations.

The broader climate implications of the total recoverable oil are broadly positive. If all remaining recoverable oil was to be burnt immediately, the global warming impact would be +0.25 C However, only 35% of carbon emissions from that oil would still be in the atmosphere in 2100, as it takes 80 years to be naturally removed from the air. Also, not all oil is burnt for energy; for example, carbon in plastics is released into the atmosphere only if incinerated.

According to Rystad Energy analysis, global recoverable oil now totals an estimated 1,572 billion barrels, a drop of almost 9% since last year and 152 billion fewer barrels than 2021’s total.