ROME -- In a surprise move that analysts said could help boost economic growth and might be a nod toward the approaching political season, the Italian government on Wednesday announced a new set of reforms that included a reduction in income tax rates. Though the income tax cut, targeting at the low income groups (those earning less than 28,000 euros annually) -- the reforms that include spending cuts and an increase in the country's value-added tax rate are expected to be revenue positive, adding between 11.3 billion euros and 11.6 billion euros to state coffers. "There are two ways to look at it," said Rosario Tulio, an economist with the University of Sicily. "A reduction in income tax rates for those who earn the least can lead to greater economic growth because people in those income brackets are most likely to spend any extra money they have." "A more cynical view says that this move suddenly makes Prime Minister Mario Monti more palatable to many at a time when there's a growing possibility that his term as Prime Minister could extend beyond the current technocrat government," he added. Individuals earning less than 15,000 euros per year will see their tax rate drop by one percentage point to 22 percent after deductions, while those with an income between 15,001 euros and 28,000 euros per year the tax rate will drop by one point, to 26 percent. Still, Italy's overall tax burden is the equivalent of 45.3 percent of the country's gross domestic product, one of the highest levels in the world. Economists at Banca Intesa Sanpaolo, in a research note, called the unexpected change in tax rates a "last-minute twist." But they could have lasting implications. According to pollsters, Monti's approval levels have eroded from a high of around 80 percent when he first took office last year to under 30 percent in recent polls. The biggest drag, said the polling firm Opinioni, is the tax-related measures associated with the government's austerity plans put in place to help Italy avoid falling victim to the European debt crisis. The lower income tax rate could help reverse that trend, though not everyone is pleased with the latest news. CGIL, the powerful trade union, applauded the lower income tax rate but said that the planned increase in VAT would "raise the cost of living for those struggling to pay back their debts." If the changes help Monti's approval levels recover, it would come during a period in which it appears increasingly likely that Monti's tenure as prime minister could last longer than expected. When Monti took over in November 2011, his mandate was to finish the term of predecessor Silvio Berlusconi -- until elections expected to take place in the first half of 2013. But with a lack of a clear frontrunner as the elections approach, it's possible that if no figure is able to form a coalition, that Monti could be asked to stay on the job. If that happened, it would not be as part of a technocrat government but rather one in which he would have to build consensus among parliamentarians in order to push through policies. To that end, rising approval levels would be helpful. , |
