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在佛罗里达举行的“习特会”将明智地阐释三个问题，以使中美关系能在正确的基础上启航。 首先，中国需要务实地处理美国在亚洲的影响力；其次，，如果中国想要与美国保持稳定的投资与贸易关系，就必须使公共外交在那些没有因全球化而受益的美国人中产生共鸣；最后，中国需要在此次会晤中回应特朗普，美国与其盟友的关系顺利发展对中国来说是积极的。
盘古智库学术委员 北京大学国际关系学院教授 The timing for a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President XiJinping this week is just about right. This month, Trump will have been in office for a full onehundred days. In March, China convened its National People’s Congress meetings, anoccasion for leaders at various levels of government to harmonise approaches to governingChina for the remainder of the year. In both countries expectations for the two leaders toprioritise substance over formality are well justified. Two days are reserved for the occasion, aclear indication of commitment to achieving their respective goals. By the time of the meeting, the Trump administration will have sufficiently demonstrated that itsChina policy direction is one of stabilisation. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, on his maiden tripto Beijing in early March surprised observers — both Chinese and American — by repeatingChinese talking points on conducting the bilateral relationship. On Taiwan, the ‘One China’policy stays. On issues of finance and trade, Trump has proven amenable, contrary to repeatedrhetoric during his presidential campaign. But the ecology surrounding the relationship between Beijing and Washington is still fragile. Thepast warns against predicting breakthroughs from the Florida summit. The number of times Ximet with Obama surpassed that of all their predecessors combined since 1971. While there isno evidence to conclude that bilateral ties worsened from those high-level meetings, there is stillroom for the relationship between China and the United States to improve. This time round, ‘get tough on China’ is more the norm than the exception among US foreignpolicy protagonists. Many American pundits blame the Obama administration for having failed to‘stand up to China’ on just about every issue area from trade and cyber security to North Koreaand the South China Sea. Never mind the contrast between Obama’s declarations that‘prosperity without freedom is just another form of poverty’ in philosophising a strategic ‘pivot toAsia’, and Xi wondering why foreigners view China as a threat when his country no longerexports ideology or poverty. Trump is therefore challenged to prove that the United States can, after all, stand up to China.Another group of Americans encourages Trump to live up to his own tweets about China. Sofar Trump and his team have chosen to resist the pressure. The Xi–Trump meeting in Florida would be wise to address three issues to get the relationshipstarted on the right footing. First, China needs to be pragmatic in dealing with US influence inAsia. The allies and partners of the United States in Asia — China’s neighbours as well —demand explicit and repeated assurance of US staying power. While the United States willinglychooses to stay in Asia, the widely accepted view that there will be a trade-off between US andChinese influence over the future of the region sets off complicated trilateral geopoliticalreactions. Both Beijing and Washington are constantly tested to prove themselves reliable andamicable. For China, it would be best advised to drop its past attempts at winning support from the UnitedStates for a broad framing of the bilateral relationship between the two countries. The Obamaadministration’s shunning of the ‘new model of major power relations’ rhetoric serves as auseful reminder that a new try on the Trump administration is unlikely to be productive. China can deal with ideologues or sceptics at home by adopting Deng Xiaoping’s wisdom. Itdoes not matter if America’s geo-strategic intent is benign or hostile towards China. As long asinteraction with the United States brings tangible benefits to the Chinese people, China shouldand must deal with the United States as it is. Second, China’s wish for a stable trade and investment relationship with the United States willbe easier to meet if its public diplomacy can empathise with those Americans who feel leftbehind by the forces of globalisation. This can begin by acknowledging that the history ofglobalisation has been one of transfer of wealth from the rich to the poor countries of the world.At the same time, though, the delivery of lower-cost consumer products from emergingeconomies has helped lift the welfare of needy consumers in societies like the United States. Finally, at the Florida summit Trump can ill afford to be seen as soft on China by protagonists inthe United States and its Asian allies and partners. At this meeting, the Chinese side shouldecho Trump by noting that the smooth development of ties between the United States and itsAsian allies is positive for China. Trump was wise to have made similar comments in front of theWhite House press when receiving Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe earlier in the year. |
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