中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年3月16日报道，天剑狂刀变态版，美国能源信息署(EIA)在周四发布的《2023年年度能源展望》报告中预测，国际对石油产品的高需求将导致美国产量持续增长。再加上美国国内消费增长相对较小，这意味着在所有2023年年度能源展望情景中，美国到2050年仍将是石油产品和天然气的净出口国。

EIA认为，根据其3个核心情景，美国石油和其他液体燃料产品的产量增加有很大的可能性。  

今年，EIA还强调如下：

在所有2023年年度能源展望情景中，由于电气化程度提高、设备效率提高和更多的零碳发电，与能源相关的二氧化碳排放量下降。EIA估计，从2005年到2030年，二氧化碳排放量将下降25%到38%。

在所有2023年年度能源展望情景中，美国所有地区的可再生能源发电能力都在增长，这得益于电池装机容量的增长，而燃煤发电到2030年前将大幅下降——比目前水平下降50%。

技术进步和电气化推动需求侧能源强度的预计下降，部分抵消了经济和人口的增长。

EIA表示，由于市场的不确定性，包括来自《通胀削减法案》的不确定性，它今年将重点转移到“模式和趋势”上，而不是关注具体数据点。

EIA目前的参考情况是，截至2022年11月，假设GDP年增长率为1.9%，布伦特原油价格在2050年达到每桶101美元，较低的估计为每桶51美元，较高的估计为每桶190美元。

EIA今年还发表了一份名为《焦点问题：通胀削减法案》的单独报告，在报告中，美国EIA表示，模拟《通胀削减法案》“复杂的一揽子激励措施”具有挑战性。EIA没有在2023年年度能源展望报告中明确包括某些《通胀削减法案》条款，因为在某种程度上，还没有关于每项条款将如何颁布的指导意见。

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

EIA Annual Energy Outlook: U.S. To Remain Net Exporter Of Petroleum Products

In its Annual Energy Outlook 2023 published on Thursday, the Energy Information Administration predicted that high international demand for petroleum products will lead to continued growth in U.S. production. Combined with relatively little growth in domestic consumption, this means the United States remains a net exporter of petroleum products and natural gas through 2050 in all AEO2023 cases.

The EIA sees a wide band of possibilities for petroleum and other liquids production depending on its three core scenarios.

This year, the EIA also highlighted the following:

·     Energy-related Co2 emissions fall across all AEO2023 cases because of increased electrification, higher equipment efficiencies, and more zero-carbon electricity generation. From 2005 to 2030, the EIA estimates that CO2 emissions will drop between 25% and 38%.

·     Renewable generating capacity grows in all regions of the US in all AEO2023 cases, supported by growth in installed battery capacity, while coal-fired generation will drop off sharply by 2030—by 50 percent of current levels.

·     Tech advancements and electrification drive projected decreases in demand-side energy intensity, partially offsetting economic and population increases.

The EIA said it shifted focus this year on “patterns and trends” instead of focusing on specific data points due to the uncertainty in the market, including from the IRA.

The EIA’s current reference case as of November 2022, assumes 1.9% annual GDP growth, with Brent reaching $101 per barrel in 2050, with a wide spread of a low estimate of $51 per barrel, and a high of $190 per barrel.

The EIA also published a separate report this year called “Issues in Focus: Inflation Reduction Act,” in which the EIA said it was challenging to model the IRA”s “complex package of incentives”. The EIA did not explicitly include certain IRA provisions in the AEO2023 because, in part, guidance was not yet available about how every provision would be enacted.