“We have at least a couple of complex seasons ahead of us,” he says, adding that it will take time for the system to regain confidence, while some companies, unfortunately, won’t be able to withstand a year of difficulties. The situation will improve in the early months of 2021 “if we are lucky”, he says.

Ratti, a leading manufacturer of fabrics for international luxury brands based in Guanzate, near Como, currently has 150 employees operating through “smart working”, which allows them to work remotely and with flexible hours while remaining under the same legal and compensation terms. Another 100 employees are still working in its plant, roughly a third of its usual capacity. “It’s completely on a voluntary basis,” says CEO Sergio Tamborini, adding that the company is ready to close if the emergency situation was to worsen even further. He says the decision to remain partially operative is less cost-effective than shutting down completely, but it’s a choice made to preserve relationships with clients and guarantee employees’ wages.

“Fashion doesn't serve any purpose — we could all stop working for a year and a half, and nothing would change, except for the people who work in it,” he says. “Stopping the flow for them would be disruptive, with [consequences] difficult to assess.”

Other companies in areas more harshly hit by the pandemic have decided to temporarily halt production altogether, even when not required by the government. Albini Group, the leading European manufacturer of shirting fabrics that has worked with brands like Calvin Klein, Ralph Lauren, Thom Browne and Dior, has closed its three production plants in Albino, Gandino and Mottola this week. Albino and Gandino are in the province of Bergamo, where the localdaily newspaper obituary pageshave more than tripled to 10.

“We have a fairly diversified supply chain and can balance orders by producing in other factories like in Egypt or the Czech Republic,” says Albini. “The fear is in the financial and economic slowdown that will directly impact consumer sentiment around the world.”

All five manufacturers used by Venice-based shoe brand Nodaleto have been closed for a week and won’t reopen until at least 20 March. The brand managed to receive 95 per cent of its Spring/Summer collection before the lockdown, but the production of its AW21 collection remains on hold. Nodaleto is now struggling with managing the stock that was supposed to be sold through its Italian wholesalers, which are currently closed, redirecting to its e-commerce site. Buyers have also ordered smaller quantities for AW21 and shops have asked to postpone deliveries.

According to BCG’s Ricci, in the long-term companies will need to think about diversifying their supply chain to better mitigate risks in emergencies, but among Italian entrepreneurs, there is a strong sense of shared responsibility towards the finely interconnected Italian supply chain and its safeguard.

OTB’s Minelli has created a crisis unit to act quickly to implement solutions aimed at minimising disruptions in production and the impact on the group’s finances and says the group’s worries are not primarily about missing its targets for the year. The company, he says, makes more than 1.5 billion in revenue, has 900 million in equity and is debt-free. “Our concern is upstream, on the made-in-Italy production chain, made of many medium-sized, small family-run structures that are fragile from an equity and financial point of view.” Minelli says the group is not planning to reduce its order quantities or make other strategic decisions that could favour its own interests while penalising its suppliers.

What most expect is a domino effect. A decrease in retail sales will hurt brands and affect payments to suppliers, overwhelming the chain as a whole. Entrepreneurs and associations have asked the Italian government to emanate moratoriums on mortgages, bank loans and taxes to guarantee liquidity in the system. “The suspension [will allow] companies to pay their current expenses, and therefore their workforce, which is a treasure. If we lose it, we won’t be able to get it back,” says Sapaf’s Calistri.

On Monday the Italian government approved a 25 billion economic package, which includes the deferment of contributions, tax and tax withholdings due on 16 March to 31 May for entities that declare a turnover of less than 2 million and for those supply chains most harshly hit by the emergency. The decree also suspends mortgages and loan repayments and freezes collective dismissals.