Many critics interpreted UAE’s move as a tactical concession aimed at future advances. Most of its weapons and equipment are American style, so it’s uneasy to turn to other sources, but its refusal still stands for an attitude currently prevalent in the region – the Middle Eastern countries don’t want to submit to American pressure, take sides between China and the US, or fall prey to the so-called major-power struggle. The recent halt of the negotiations clearly conveyed the position of UAE, a representative country in the region.

一是多面下注的外交战略。多面下注是小国避险求存的不二法则，无论美国压力多大，阿联酋等国家都无法在中美间做选择题。阿联酋深知安全上靠美国，经济上靠中国，将是未来相当长一段时期内不能回避的现实，特别是它将与中国的经贸、科技合作视为未来国运所系，根本无法按美国的要求选边站队，因此在美方最后通牒之下被迫采取反制措施。

Middle Eastern countries are adopting a multi-directional diplomatic strategy. This is a golden rule for small countries to avoid risks and stay safe on the international stage. No matter how much pressure the US imposes, countries like UAE cannot choose one over the other. UAE knows perfectly well that for a long time in the future, it will depend on the US for security and on China for economy. Especially as it sees the economic, trade and tech cooperation with China as the key engine for the country’s future development, it would never take sides as America asked, so much so that it was forced to take a countermeasure at America’s ultimatum.

二是美国不再是中东国家可靠的盟友。“阿拉伯之春”、沙特阿美公司油田遇袭、阿富汗变局等一系列事件使中东国家对与美国的盟友关系产生严重不信任感，对其提供的安全保护产生疑虑。拜登政府的“价值观外交”使中东国家备感压力，它们因人权等问题受到美国打压。美方举办“民主峰会”，阿拉伯国家仅有伊拉克一个国家受邀。更严重的是，美国与中东国家之间在能源领域还形成了竞争关系，美国现在每天仅从中东进口7万桶石油，只占其进口量的12%。因此，中东国家无论基于自身利益还是根据对未来国际格局的判断，不再无条件、无原则地追随美国。

The US is no longer a reliable ally for Middle Eastern countries. “Arab Spring”, the attack at Saudi Aramco’s oilfields, and the Afghan situation have made Middle Eastern countries extremely distrustful of their alliance with the US and doubtful about the security protection it provides. Biden’s “value diplomacy” has put great pressure on them and made them the target of America on human rights issues. The US invited only one Arab country – Iraq – to its recent Summit for Democracy. To make things worse, the US and the Middle East are in competition in the energy sector – the former imports only 70,000 barrels of oil from the latter per day, 12 percent of its total import. Therefore, judging from their national interests and the future international landscape, Middle Eastern countries decide to no longer follow America’s lead unconditionally.

三是存在替代选项。阿联酋之所以敢于向美国说“不”，还有一个原因在于美国技术垄断的时代已经一去不复返，天剑狂刀BT私服，阿方可从其他国家获得类似的武器装备和先进技术。就在几天前，阿联酋与法国签署巨额军购合同，拟购买80架F-4版“阵风”战斗机和12架攻击直升机。虽然阿方称两项交易彼此独立，但实际可以从中看出，由于替代选项的存在，阿方有了抵制美方店大欺客、漫天要价行为的底气。

Third, UAE has alternatives. An important reason why UAE dares to say no to the US is that the age of American technological monopoly is gone. Now UAE can lay its hands on similar weapons, equipment and advanced technologies from other countries. Just days ago, it signed a huge arms contract with France planning to buy 80 F-4 Rafale fighters and 12 attack helicopters. Although UAE claimed the two deals were independent from each other, it’s apparent that the existence of alternative options has given it the nerve and confidence to fight back against America’s bullying and salt prices.

阿方主动暂停军售相关谈判的“反戈一击”令美方深感错愕。美方多名官员表示有关谈判未来仍有机会重启，美方立场显然已经软化。美方在对阿军售问题上的蛮横态度和霸凌行为，说明美国某些政客还沉睡在冷战大梦中，对世界的变化麻木不仁。这次阿联酋的断然决定给他们敲响了警钟，告诉他们在中东和其他地区搞冷战式的反华联盟已经行不通了。

UAE’s abrupt suspension of the arms deal negotiations has taken the American side aback, and it has already softened with several officials expressing hope that the negotiations would be restarted down the road. Given America’s domineering and peremptory attitude toward the UAE on the arms deal, it’s clear that some American politicians are still busking in their Cold War dream while remaining callous to the changes happening around the world. UAE’s flat refusal has sounded an alarm telling them that their attempt to put up a Cold-War-style anti-China alliance in either the Middle East or elsewhere is doomed to fail.

（作者是上海外国语大学中东研究所教授）

(The author is a professor at the Middle East Studies Instituteof Shanghai International Studies University)