韩宝明：这种需求是弹性的，有人可能说想回家探亲，买不到票他就不回去了。这种需求，说实话，还真没有一个机构去给它做一个估算。对每条线也不一样，不同的方向有不一样的需求，不能一概而论全国缺多少，我能（提供）多少。

Han Baoming: The demand is flexible. Some may just not go home, if he or she cannot get a ticket. To be frank, no one has ever estimated it. And every railway line is different. There are different demands on different lines. You cannot generally say how large the nationwide shortage is and how much capacity can be provided.

冯欣：那春运难现象到底是怎么形成的？

Feng Xin: And how has "chunyun" become a problem?

韩宝明：刚才是讲的需求，现在就要说供给。比如说，对于一个企业来说，它如果按最大值去配备它的生产能力，它在平常就会闲置。比如说，一个长途客运公司，正常（情况下）我就配100辆车，这100辆车你全部投入使用，没有检修，那它也满足不了要求。那有可能，打个比方说，应该是到180辆车，那180辆车，它平常的客流没那么大，有80辆车就在家里放着，人员也得养着。这种情况，从经济方面，从企业方面，也是个难题。

Han Baoming: We just talked about demand; now I am going to talk about supply. Let's say, for a company, if it designs its production capacity to its maximum, it will be a waste in normal days. Say a long-distance bus company has 100 buses during normal time. If the 100 buses are all put in use without maintenance, the demand cannot be met anyway. Maybe the company has to have 180 buses, for example, to meet the demand. While the demand is not that big on ordinary days, the 80 buses will have to stay at home. And the company has to pay for the workers. So it is a puzzle both in cost-efficiency and the industry.

冯欣：运能和效益的关系也许世界通用，那中国又特殊在哪呢？

Feng Xin: Whereas the relationship between cost-efficiency and travel capacity might be universal, what's unique about China?

冯欣：每个国家都有自己的节假日, 为什么中国的春运被称作世界上最大的人类迁徙？

Feng Xin: Every country has its own holidays and festivals, why is China's New Year transportation called the world's largest human mobilization in a year?

赵坚：中国的人口是世界上最多的，发展速度也是最快的，所以越来越多的农民进城务工寻求机会，这是一个原因。另外一个原因是城市化，在中国，我们对农村人定居在城市，比如“户口”的限制，这让很多人很难定居在城市。在春节期间，他们就会回家乡与家人团聚，这是城市化的问题。

Zhao Jian: China's population is the largest in the world. And the development speed is number one in the world. So more people, especially the farmers, will go out to choose new opportunities. So this is one reason. Another is the urbanization problem. In China, we have many constraints on people to live in the city. Because we have "hukou", for example. So, this constraint makes some people cannot live in the city. During the Chinese New Year, they will go home to reunite with their other family members. This is one problem of urbanization.

另一个问题是铁路运输能力，中国越来越多地建设了高速铁路，而不是既有铁路（普通铁路）。春节期间，很多人需要乘坐普通列车，因为它更便宜。高铁是为商务人士或旅游者而建的，很多人不需要高铁或高速，他们甚至认为普通列车太贵了。在珠江三角洲，有的人甚至骑摩托回家。

Another is the railway transportation capacity. China has built more high-speed rails but not conventional rails. During the Chinese New Year, many people demand the conventional train, because it's cheaper. High-speed railways were built for businessmen or travelers. So, (many people) don't want to use the high-speed rail. They even think the conventional train is too expensive. Some people, especially in the Pearl River Delta, go home by motorcycle.

冯欣：今年春运首逢网络购票，您认为在多大程度上，网络购票能缓解春运期间购票的压力？

Feng Xin: This year is the first year where people can book tickets online during the Chinese New Year transportation. To what extent, do you think this approach will relieve the pressure of buying tickets during that busy time?

赵坚：我认为有一些作用，但是很有限。问题的关键不是票而是运能，因为在这些线路上没有足够的列车，没有足够的票。即使人们可以在网上或订票点买票，情况是一样的。所以网购的作用非常有限。

Zhao Jian: It has some function, but I think it is very limited. The problem right now is not the tickets but capacity, because there are no trains operating on this line. It's because there are not enough tickets for people to buy. So even (though) people can buy online or book from the ticket office, it's the same. It can solve some problems, but it is very limited.

在我们现有的铁路上，每天每条线单向最多能运行150次列车，不能再多了。

On our railway, each day, in one direction, can only operate –the maximum capacity is 150 trains operating on it. You cannot operate too many.

冯欣：为什么呢？

Feng Xin: And why?

赵坚：因为每辆列车之间必须有一些时间间隔，如果间隔过小，列车就会相撞，所以不能运行再多的列车。

Zhao Jian: Because there must be some time gap between each train. If the time difference is too small, they will crash. So, you cannot operate more trains on it.

冯欣：根据这个说法，光是增加列车的数目，并不能从根本上解决运能不足的问题，那为什么这个问题多年来一直没有解决呢？

Feng Xin: It seems that adding more trains cannot fundamentally increase China's railway transportation capacity, but why hasn't the problem been solved over the years?